Prediction Market
1. Overview
Prediction Market allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Each event has multiple possible outcomes, represented as tradable shares priced between $0 and $1.
- Buy Yes: purchase shares betting the outcome will occur.
- Buy No: purchase shares betting the outcome will not occur.
- When the event resolves, winning shares pay out $1 each; losing shares pay out $0.
The share price reflects the market's estimated probability of the outcome. A Yes price of $0.62 means the market estimates a 62% probability.
2. Account Setup
First-time users will be prompted to complete a one-time account setup when accessing the Prediction page. Follow the on-screen instructions and click Agree & Create to proceed. This is required only once.
3. Funding
Transfer USDC from the Perpetuals account to the Prediction Market account:
- Navigate to the Portfolio page.
- Select Transfer.
- Set From: Perpetuals Account → To: Prediction Market Account.
- Enter the amount and confirm.
Transfers typically complete within a few minutes.
To withdraw, use the same Transfer function in reverse (From: Prediction Market Account → To: Perpetuals Account).
4. Browsing Events
Events are accessible from the Prediction page in the top navigation bar.
Use the tabs at the top to filter events by category or sort order. Use the search bar to find events by keyword.
5. Event Detail & Trading
Click on an event card to view the event detail page.
The event detail page shows the price/odds chart, a countdown to the end date, and a list of all possible outcomes with their current % Chance.
For each outcome, click Buy Yes or Buy No to place an order. Both Market and Limit order types are supported. For Limit orders, specify the price and order expiry.
Users can sell existing shares at any time before the event resolves by placing a sell order on the same outcome.
6. Positions
Active positions can be viewed on the Portfolio page or on the right side of the event detail page.
7. Settlement
When an event resolves:
- The outcome is determined.
- Winning shares settle at $1.00; losing shares settle at $0.00.
- Click Claim to receive the payout.
- Funds are credited to the Prediction Market account.
A notification is sent when an event the user participated in has been settled.
8. Fees
edgeX does not charge trading fees for the Prediction Market. Polymarket may charge fees on certain markets according to its own fee policy; currently most markets are fee-free.
9. Region Availability
Prediction Market is not available in all regions due to regulatory requirements. Users in restricted regions will see a notification and will be unable to trade.
10. Risk Disclosure
- Market Risk: Share prices are driven by market sentiment and may not reflect the true probability of an outcome.
- Liquidity Risk: Low-liquidity events may have wider spreads or order slippage.
- Settlement Risk: Outcomes are determined by Polymarket based on pre-defined resolution criteria. edgeX does not control the resolution process.
- Transfer Risk: Cross-chain transfers may experience delays. Contact support if a transfer does not complete within 30 minutes.
Only trade with funds you can afford to lose.
11. FAQ
Q: How do I start trading?
A: Complete the one-time account setup on the Prediction page, transfer USDC from the Perpetuals account, then place orders.
Q: Can I sell shares before the event ends?
A: Yes. Shares can be sold at any time at the current market price.
Q: Are there any fees?
A: edgeX does not charge fees. Polymarket may charge fees on select markets; see the order confirmation screen for details.
Q: What happens when an event resolves?
A: Winning shares pay $1.00 each. Click Claim to receive the payout.
Q: How long does a fund transfer take?
A: Typically a few minutes. Contact support if the transfer does not complete within 30 minutes.
Q: Why can't I access the Prediction Market?
A: The feature may be restricted in your region.
Q: Can I use the same USDC for Perpetuals and Prediction Market?
A: The two accounts are separate. Use the Transfer function on the Portfolio page to move funds between them.